Superhero Films In 2017: An Analysis of Marvel Studios

Somewhere along the line I fully intend to produce a full-length essay on the current situation of audio-visual superhero fiction, because at the moment the sub-genre (because ultimately that's what it is) is so prevalent in our media that escaping either their popularity or influence is almost impossibly difficult. Whether trailers for the latest Marvel movies are trending on social media, or there's a huge posters adorning buses, billboards and cinemas, or trailers and TV spots either just before a film you want to see, or even between a programme you want to watch. Big-budget Hollywood blockbusters generally have this kind of influence (Blade Runner 2049 being the latest to ratchet up its marketing here in the UK), but superhero movies have seemingly changed the entire cinematic and to a certain extent television landscape in such a way that people are either rejoicing or just completely fed up with the whole thing.
Such an analysis into what has now become a staple of 21st Century pop culture is, however, incredibly difficult to really go into - especially when these things are still being made. Because of this, I'm not really sure when or even how to start such a project. For now though, I thought it would be interesting to analyse the genre in September 2017 - less than a month before Thor: Ragnarok's UK premiere and less than two months before Justice League is released worldwide. If these films, for whatever reason, completely change the game, this editorial is suddenly outdated and everything I'm about to delve into will seem utterly pointless...hence why I haven't tried to undertake anything quite this extensive before now.
For those who don't know, the big superhero franchises can be split into three main series': the Marvel Studios productions, the Twentieth Century Fox / Marvel Entertainment productions and the Warner Bros / DC Films productions. What's all the more interesting, however, is that a mere three years ago there was another big studio to add to this list: Sony Pictures. What happened there? I'll explain later. But for now, let's take a look at each.
Marvel Studios is obviously not the grandfather of all these big superhero movies, but what's so interesting about them is how they managed to take the success of X-Men and Spider-Man and create a twelve billion dollar franchise. Kevin Feige and his team have managed to create this huge franchise with sixteen films, alongside television series, digital series and short films. Before this year, Marvel's cinematic and television empire seemed almost invincible, having created a string of financially and critically successful films, a long-running spin-off television series and a whole new franchise of shows streaming on Netflix. The only problems Marvel actually had up to this point were The Incredible Hulk under-performing, Agent Carter being cancelled after two seasons and both Most Wanted and Damage Control not even reaching a series order.
And then 2017 came along, and suddenly it seems as though Scott Buck has destroyed Marvel's lucky streak with Iron Fist: season 1 (a Netflix original series which received a 18% rating on Rotten Tomatoes) and the cinematic premiere of Inhumans (which currently sits at a staggering 6% on RT). Such failures with both critical and fan response didn't stop both being successful though, with Iron Fist apparently receiving strong viewing figures on Netflix - enough to warrant a second, course-corrected season - and Inhumans' cinematic premiere gaining $2.8 million worldwide with a limited IMAX release.
As for the films, however, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 beat it's predecessor with a large $863 million worldwide total, and Spider-Man: Homecoming (made in co-production with Sony and Columbia Pictures) grossed a whopping $874 million, topping all but one of the previous Spidey flicks. Before these, Captain America: Civil War topped Rogue One in 2016 with $1.1 billion worldwide, and Doctor Strange grossed a strong $677 million - despite being a little-known first film in a hopeful trilogy. Regardless of whether Marvel are making sequels, reboots or inaugural entries, they keep raking in the cash and popularity with their fans.
Where next though? Well, Thor: Ragnarok is on track to make a strong impact at the box office, with my theory being that it will gross between $800-900 million worldwide - with a strong audience and critical reception. It might gain a little less in its October slot, but the only real competition it'll have is with Justice League a few weeks later.
After that, Marvel gives us its first more diverse entry with Black Panther in February - a film which may make big bucks, but regardless shouldn't be too pricey to lose any money if it grosses less than $600 million worldwide. Ant-Man and the Wasp in July will probably top the first with a good $600-700 million gross (again assuming it's popular), and Captain Marvel should be on track to make a similar amount in March 2019.
But what about Avengers: Infinity War I hear you ask? Well, Infinity War is in a really tough spot at the moment - easily being Marvel's most risky, despite seemingly being the most bankable film to date. The last two Avengers entries grossed a total of nearly $3 billion combined, and with the added appeal of the Guardians of the Galaxy, surely Infinity War should gross a good $1.5 billion at least? Such a prospect is, however, something to be wary about. Audiences have caught on to film sequels just biding their time until the next entry, causing franchises like The Hunger Games to lose out with "Part 1" entries. Maybe some of the audience will skip Infinity War and catch-up before Avengers 4 in 2019. Or, perhaps film-goers will be divided when the as-of-yet untitled Han Solo movie is released in late May, biting into Infinity War's potentially huge box office dosh. My prediction? If the movie is popular, it has a good chance of reaching Jurassic World's $1.6 billion success, but I can't see it reaching Star Wars: The Force Awakens' $2 billion smash-hit.
Avengers 4 is of course completely up in the air at the moment, but following that entry it'll be a return to Spidey with the as-of-yet untitled Spider-Man: Homecoming sequel in July 2019 hoping to beat it's predecessor, and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 in 2020 hoping for a total closer to $1 billion. Beyond all of these? Marvel hasn't released their slate beyond 2020 yet, but if they don't drop the ball on the last few films of Phase 3, or the first two of Phase 4, they should be safe.
How long can such luck run for though? How long will it take until Marvel Studios are dethroned from their mega-hits with moderate successes more akin to the Mission: Impossible or X-Men films? Nothing lasts forever, but when you've created a $12 billion franchise based on popular films, it seems a little unlikely you'll lose out any time soon.